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FOREX-Euro subdued by Greek bailout uncertainty.The euro eased on Monday, pulling away from a key chart resistance as uncertainty over how Greece's de
9:39 AM // 0 comments // Sexy Girl // Category: //* Uncertainty over IMF/EU tranche for Greece weighs
* Dollar index .DXY subdued near 2-week lows
(Updates prices, adds quote and details)
By Anirban Nag
LONDON, May 30 (Reuters) - The euro eased on Monday, pulling away from a key chart resistance as uncertainty over how Greece's debt crisis will be tackled kept investors on edge, while the dollar stabilized following a slide late last week.
With trade lacklustre due to holidays in the UK and the United States, analysts expected the euro to trade below its 55-day moving average of $1.4326.
The single currency, which was last down 0.3 percent at $1.4272 EUR=, also faces resistance near $1.4369, the top of the cloud on the daily Ichimoku chart, a technical analysis tool popular among traders. Stops are said to be lurking above $1.4350 with light bids seen below $1.42, traders said.
"The market is a bit hesitant about picking up the euro and take it past the mid-May highs of $1.4345 given uncertainty whether Greece will receive its next (aid) tranche from the IMF/EU and whether it can fulfill all the requirements," said Niels Christensen, FX strategist at Nordea.
"There is a bit of tug-of-war going on between the euro and the dollar with (recent) softer-than-expected U.S. data hurting the dollar."
Greek government bond yields rose and yield spreads over German Bunds widened after European Central Bank board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi warned of the dangers if Greece were to default on its debt. He told the Financial Times it was a "fairytale" to think that Greece's debts could be restructured in an orderly way. [ID:nLDE74S0K3]
Over the weekend German weekly magazine Der Spiegel fanned fears that Greece might not receive the next tranche of its EU/IMF bailout, saying Athens might have missed all fiscal targets set by its lenders.
Greece and the IMF denied the report and EU officials said they were working on a second bailout package that will avert a potential Greek default. [ID:LDE74T0ZB]
European Union and IMF officials are expected to deliver their progress report on Greece's debt sustainability probably late this week. As that will signal whether Athens gets the next tranche of its bailout, euro bulls are likely to stay on the sidelines given the uncertainty. If Greece fails to get funds, it faces the possibility of default over the summer.
SPECULATORS CUT LONG EURO POSITIONS
Latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed speculators drastically reduced net long positions in the euro in the week to May 24. [IMM/FX]
Still, speculators were carrying a small net long position, which meant some traders are expecting a rise rather than a fall in the euro/dollar. That was in contrast to mid-2010 when the euro zonedebt crisis led to a jump in bearish euro bets.
"With more neutral positioning in the market, risk has become more symmetrical," Danske Markets said in a note. "Should the June ECB meeting bring focus back to relative rates there should thus be room for renewed positioning building and hence renewed upside in the euro/dollar."
While worries about the risk of a debt restructuring by Greece cast a cloud over the euro, a recent run of weak U.S. economic data and a drop in U.S. Treasury yields were weighing on the dollar, traders said.
Earlier on Monday, the dollar hit a record low against the Swiss franc of 0.8457 francs CHF= on trading platform EBS and dipped to a 26-year trough versus the New Zealand dollar NZD=D4. The dollar index .DXY was flat at 74.93, not far from a two-week low of 74.752.
"Data in the U.S. is showing growth is losing momentum and that has supported speculation of another round of quantitative easing," said Manuel Oliveri, currency strategist at UBS. "For the dollar to turn around there has to be a change in interest rate expectations in the U.S. That's unlikely in the near term."
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped to as low as 0.48 percent US2YT=RR on Friday, the lowest since early December. Data in the U.S. picks up this week, with the May jobs report on Friday the highlight.
The dollar was steady against the Japanese yen at 80.84 yen JPY=, but has retreated since hitting a three-week peak of 82.23 yen earlier in May. (Editing by John Stonestreet and Susan Fenton)
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